The EIA weekly report was modestly constructive.

Despite media reports of a ‘surge’ in product inventories, these are entirely normal when considering seasonality and demand factors. Crude inventories are similarly normal.
Gasoline and diesel supplied (consumption) look quite healthy, both up and reflecting greater affordability at the pump. The US consumer is feeling in a better mood.
Incentive-to-store analysis suggests that balances may remain relatively soft in the first half of the year, with gradual tightening through 2024. This suggests comparatively subdued oil prices through Q1, but with a gradual rise towards the back end of the year. Bear in mind this is current market sentiment, not necessarily a forecast.
US oil production declined 0.1 mbpd to 13.2 mbpd but is essentially flat over the last three months. This is consistent with the EIA’s monthly STEO, which sees US production on a brief plateau and then declining modestly to a lower level through Q3.

Notwithstanding, the Brent Spread (Brent – WTI) remains reasonably wide, $5.50 / barrel at writing. This is consistent, as before, with US production growth of around 800 kbpd / year. Lively US demand and flat US production growth should be driving higher oil prices, but it’s not. Maybe it’s China, or perhaps production growth is not fully captured in the data.

Overall, the report speaks to a healthy economy and balanced inventories, with a suggestion that production growth is better than the numbers say.