EIA PSR Week of Feb. 17: Will WTI fall into the $60s?

  • Crude inventories built again this week, up 9 mb

  • As last week, excess crude inventories, as measured by seasonally-adjusted days of turnover, rose 2.2 mb.  Seasonality and rising runs account for the lower gain in excess inventories measured by turnover days.

  • Excess crude inventories have risen for 9 of the last 11 weeks

  • Crude inventories remain 250 mb below long-term averages, although this does not matter much for operating inventories as US oil consumption remains about 1 mbpd below normal

  • Product inventories are normal, with distillate a bit tight

  • Demand (product supplied) looks a bit brighter, but keep in mind that refiners and distributors probably stuffed retail channels ahead of the President’s Day holiday on Monday, thereby inflating the appearance of improving consumption.  Let’s see whether this reverses next week

  • US Lower 48 crude and condensate production rose 0.1 mbpd to 11.9 mbpd, although total oil production was unchanged at 12.3 mbpd (due to a bit less production from Alaska).  This was the highest L48 production in almost three years, although still 0.7 mbpd below the prior record set in Feb. 2020.  

  • Oil prices continue to erode with the futures curve in soft contango, as has been for the last several weeks.  

    • Doesn't look like Russian product exports are declining in any material fashion.

    • The data suggests that the WTI price could start with a “6” (ie., sub-$70) in the next couple of weeks.  If it does so, that would mark an entry point for the next cycle.

EIA PSR Week of Feb. 17th pdf