Rigs counts eased back after large gains last week
Total oil rig counts fell, -2 to 607
Horizontal oil rig counts declined marginally, -1 to 562
The Permian shed 1 horizontal oil rig
The pace of horizontal rig additions rose to +0.75 / week, the first time this metric has been positive in the last ten weeks.
The breakeven to add horizontal oil rigs rose to $79 / barrel on a WTI basis with $76 on the screen
Our model suggests that rig counts will remain flat to down for the next two months or so
Frac spreads rose, +6 to 272, still no higher than a year ago
Rig and spread productivity numbers suggests DUC inventory may begin to erode once again, although the EIA reports DUC counts up modestly over the last three months
The EIA published the February Drilling Productivity Report (DPR) this past week
In the February DPR report, crude and condensate production from key shale plays rose to 9.03 mbpd in January, up 87 kbpd from December. Total shale oil production growth has averaged 64 kbpd / month over the last three months
However, the EIA revised down historical shale production quite sharply, on average by more than 100 kbpd for November and December. As such, reported shale production for January is actually below the prior estimate for December’s output.
Permian production was up 35 kbpd in January.
Permian production growth has averaged 40 kbpd per month over the last three months, but the pace appears to be decelerating.
The current trend line suggests Permian production could peak in Q3 or Q4