Illegal immigration is top of the US political agenda heading into the election, and of course, frames the possibilities of Ukraine funding. In this post, we look at the outlook for 2024.
We forecast US southwest border encounters by Customs and Border Patrol at 2.7 million for FY 2024, based on the last three months of data, adjusted seasonally. Apprehensions look to come in just a hair above 2023 levels. Inadmissibles, those presenting at official crossing points without appropriate documentation, are slated to rise by almost 200,000, largely due to the monthly rise over the last year, but essentially at the same pace as seen in the last few months. Thus, 2024 is forecast to see a new all-time record for encounters, eclipsing the pre-Biden records set under the Reagan and Clinton administrations by more than one million. It is also 400,000 higher than the quantities proposed in the much-maligned Border Security Act promulgated last month.
Source: US Customs and Border Protection, Princeton Policy analysis and forecast
Border encounters do not, of course, directly determine the number of undocumented migrants gaining entry into the US interior. Historically, most of those arrested at the border were deported. Further, not all those crossing the border are detected or detained, with these collectively known as 'gotaways'. To appreciate the societal impact, the change in the undocumented population must be separately estimated. The 'go-to' source for such numbers has been the Pew Research Center, which has estimated the undocumented population every few years. Pew's estimates are not without their critics, including me, but are still the most widely accepted. By Pew's count, the undocumented population of the US rose by an average of 256,000 per year from 1994 to 2020. This number is skewed by the effects of the Great Recession, which actually saw the undocumented population fall. If we exclude the 2008-2020 period, Pew's analysis suggests the undocumented population rose by 550,000 per year, which we might consider the normalized value for assessing undocumented entry during the Biden administration.
Source: Pew Research Center; US House of Representatives Committee on the Judiciary and Subcommittee on Immigration Integrity, Security, and Enforcement (Oct. 2023): Princeton Policy analysis
As the graph above shows, undocumented entry has exploded under the Biden administration's Open Borders policy, rising from an estimated 1.1 million in 2021 to our forecast of 3.2 million for 2024.
As these numbers are likely to draw protest from various DC think tanks, allow a brief digression into methodology. Our forecast is based upon statistics from Customs and Border Protection and numbers contained in the House Judiciary Committee's Oct. 2023 report, "The Biden Border Crisis" (well worth reading for the outrage alone). The House report, prepared under a Republican majority, is clearly hostile to the Biden administration. Nevertheless, the figures presented appear largely accurate and therefore suitable for our analysis and forecast.
'Undocumented entry', as defined on the graph above, includes those apprehended at the southwest border but released into the interior, either directly by Border Patrol or later by ICE or HHS. It also includes CBP One paroles and categorical paroles for Cubans, Haitians, Nicaraguans, and Venezuelans. And finally, the estimate includes 'gotaways' as given in the House report. Our 2024 forecast is based on these numbers adjusted for anticipated border encounters.
The change in the undocumented population and undocumented entry are not quite the same thing. The sources of data and the types of estimating vary. For example, undocumented entries do not include undocumented departures, which would be captured implicitly by Pew's undocumented population estimates. Nevertheless, the differences are so stark that, regardless of the methodology used, undocumented entry during the Biden administration can be considered categorically different from illegal immigration and border enforcement under any prior president, Republican or Democrat. Moreover, the graph highlights the difference between leaky border enforcement and a de facto Open Borders policy as practiced currently. Open Borders permits Illegal immigration effectively an order of magnitude greater than under the customary US border enforcement regime. It is therefore no surprise that Republicans are making such fuss over the matter.
To an extent, President Biden has been lucky so far. Job growth has been simply extraordinary, the best since at least 1939. The first three years of the Biden administration saw the addition of nearly 14 million non-farm jobs. This easily eclipses the closest comparable, the Carter years of 1976-1978, which saw growth of 10 million jobs. Of course, the principal driver of recent employment additions has been the recovery from the pandemic, during which the US lost more than 8 million jobs. Notwithstanding, jobs are beginning to catch up with long-term trends, and as a result, 2024 promises to be a solid, but not exceptional, year for employment growth.
Source: FRED (PAYEMS); Princeton Policy trend projections
A historically strong job market largely negated the impacts of unchecked immigration in 2021 and 2022. Although undocumented entry was high, job growth was even higher, and consequently, the US labor market absorbed arriving migrants without material disruption. This began to change in 2023, with our estimate of undocumented migrant arrivals reaching 80% of total job growth. Resentment from Hispanics, notably from earlier-arrived, undocumented immigrants, and from blacks began to rise.
Sources: FRED (PAYEMS); Pew Reseach Center; House Judiciary Committee (Oct. 2023); Princeton Policy analysis
We forecast that undocumented entry will exceed US job growth in 2024. Thus, the resentments seen last year will likely become exacerbated as the US economy is unable to fully absorb arriving migrants. For President Biden and Democrats, this represents a huge risk. The path to defeat in November is not principally through disaffected independents and moderate Republicans, but rather through low-wage blacks and Hispanics who will turn to Trump in fear that another four years of Open Borders will gut their wages. As I explain in my next post, these fears are not misplaced.