Ten days ago, I suggested we might see Urals at $75 in short order, and here it is today, $75.59 at writing. ESPO, Russia's eastern oil export price, is trading above $85, with WTI at $88 and Brent at $92.

The Urals discount, the difference between Urals and Brent, has once again shrunk, to $16.40 / barrel, about $2 / barrel less than ten days ago.

The Urals price is now above its level from a year ago and near the high for the 2015-2021 period.

It is hard to avoid the impression that the Saudis and Russians, among others in OPEC+, are working to jack prices up, in part an attempt to undermine the Biden administration heading towards the election. The Price Cap itself is largely to blame for the situation. As I have noted earlier, the side effects of prohibitions and related enforcement are up to 20 times worse than the underlying problem. A cartel antagonistic to the sponsors of the Cap is but one adverse effect of a prohibition-based approach.