EIA PSR Week of July 28th: More of the same; the Price Cap has collapsed.

  • More of the same this week.

  • Excess crude inventories, as measured by seasonally-adjusted days of turnover, fell 8 mb to 25 mb, a notable fall but to a level in the range seen in the last few weeks

  • Excess crude and key product inventories (collectively CDG, that is, crude, gasoline and distillate) were largely unchanged at 22 mb, mostly due to soft demand for products this week.  

    • There’s nothing special about these numbers which should move oil prices one way or the other.

  • Incentive-to-store analysis suggests the market continues to anticipate normal supply/demand conditions for the next year, just as it has since at least December.

  • US oil production remains flat at 12.2 mbpd.  Production is up only 0.1 mbpd compared to a year ago

  • Oil prices firmed Thursday after a slightly softer patch on Wednesday, with WTI $80.33 at writing.

  • The Russian Oil Price Cap is facing total collapse, with the Russian Urals price standing at $68.38 on Thursday, well clear of the $60 / barrel cap.

EIA PSR Week of July 28.pdf