EIA PSR Week of April 28: Panic at the Disco

  • Crude inventories declined again this week

    • Excess crude inventories, as measured by seasonally-adjusted days of turnover, have fallen by 39 mb since early March, now only 13 mb

  • Product inventories are normal

    • Crude and key product inventories, taken together, are up 7 mb to 10 mb this week, as measured by seasonally-adjusted days of turnover terms.

  • SPR draws continue at 290 kbpd this past week.  Why?

  • Refined products supplied was softer this week, with gasoline down but diesel holding up

    • There is still no recessionary signal in the US data today, although this week’s consumption (supplied) data was a bit light

  • US crude and condensate production rose by 0.1 mbpd to 12.3 mbpd, materially unchanged in the last ten months

  • Oil prices have tanked

    • This is pure financial panic

    • The futures curve continues to signal normal balances going forward

    • Panics can resolve organically. Or they can be a harbinger of a pending financial crisis.  Take your pick.