March Southwest Border Apprehensions: Still high; and a budding Chinese refugee crisis?

US Customs and Border Protection reported 162,317 apprehensions at the southwest border for the month of March.  This reflects normal seasonal gains given the new set of policies instituted by the Biden administration in January.  March apprehensions were the 5th highest for the month in the last quarter century, with the Biden administration holding three of the top five spots.  March apprehensions were still running more than three times the average for the month during the Obama and Trump administrations.  In other words, the situation has improved but remains dreadful.

With the change of administration policy, our forecast for the year also changes.  Our prior forecast anticipated 2.7 million southwest border apprehensions for fiscal year 2023.  This is reduced to 2.0 million, which is much better.  On the other hand, our forecast for FY 2023 apprehensions still constitutes the second worst year on record, better than only last year.  So again, a big improvement, but still dreadful.  

The composition of apprehensions is quite interesting.  A substantial share of the growth in apprehensions arose from non-traditional sources, that is, outside Mexico and Central America (MCA).  Apprehensions of 'Other' (non-MCA) nationals soared from 4,000 per month before the Biden administration to a staggering 156,000 this past December.  Apprehensions of 'Other' nationals remain elevated at just under 60,000 for March.  Again, we see enormous progress, a decline of 100,000 / month, but on the other hand, 'Other' apprehensions continue to run at 15 times the normal level. 

Apprehensions of nationals from Mexico and Central America have declined by 20% compared to last March, but remain at roughly three times normal levels.

While apprehensions are showing improvement, inadmissibles continue to run hot.  Inadmissibles, those presenting themselves at official crossing points without appropriate documentation, were reported at 29,582 for the month of March.  This is both nearly three times the level of last year and a record since 2012 by a similar margin.  The data continues to speak to extraordinarily permissive conditions at official crossing points.

Finally, the Wall Street Journal reports a spike in the apprehensions of Chinese nationals at the southwest border.  While the absolute numbers remain small, the pace of growth is stunning, speaking to a rapidly deteriorating political environment in China.