Not much change this week. Excess crude inventories fell marginally; production was unchanged. The only newsworthy item was gasoline supplied (consumption) which looked the best since the start of the war.
Crude inventories were flat this week
Excess crude inventories, as measured by seasonally-adjusted days of turnover, fell 2.7 mb. Seasonality accounts for the modest decline.
Crude inventories remain well below long-term levels, but are creeping up
Product inventories are normal, with distillate a bit tight
Excess inventories in aggregate are a bit high but moving sideways
Demand (product supplied) in general is perhaps a bit improved.
Total product supplied is up, but still 3% below normal
Distillate supplied remains 7.5% below normal, but recovering
Gasoline was the bright spot this week. Gasoline supplied remains 2.2% below normal (4 wma basis) but is the highest since the start of the war. The last two weeks have been marginally above normal, suggesting strength in the economy.
US Lower 48 crude and condensate production remains unchanged at 11.9 mbpd, as does total oil production at 12.3 mbpd
Oil prices have firmed but remain range-bound.
Strength in gasoline consumption suggests higher prices, but the futures curve remains in soft contango
The Russians have announced production cuts which come out to 650,000 bpd as a result of being unable to fully place their refined products in global markets following the Feb. 5 EU products embargo. (Kudos to the EIA on this call, at least to date.) Let’s see if it moves prices .
Bottom line: Not much change since last week