Court filings show that Customs and Border Protection encountered 221,303 illegal immigrants at the US southwest border in March. Encounters include both apprehensions and inadmissibles, the latter being migrants who present themselves at official crossing points without proper documentation. Apprehensions and inadmissibles for March were the second highest on record, with March 2000 slightly higher.

March encounters rose by 56,300 (+34%) over February, but the increase is largely attributable to normal seasonal variations. We forecast 212,300 encounters for March, with actuals 4.2% above the anticipated level. Consequently, March encounters were worse than expected, but not much worse. We are simply seeing a continuation of the Open Borders policy the Biden administration has employed for the last year. Put another way, border apprehensions at the current rate are absolutely appalling, but not a surprise.

Our forecast for a record 2.1 million apprehensions at the southwest border for both fiscal and calendar year 2022 remains unchanged.