Customs and Border Protection reported apprehensions for the month of February yesterday. I would note that this is the first time CBP has reported around this date in the last several months. We and others have taken CBP to task for delaying the numbers, for example here: Apprehensions Record as DHS Hides. It is a distinctly positive sign to see DHS and CBP return to traditional reporting dates. Improved reporting is a little thing, but is it a visible step away from chaos and towards some measure of predictability and control.

For the month of February, CBP reports 158,132 apprehensions at the southwest border. This is the second highest for the month since February 2000, and 60,000 higher than last year. Apprehensions were also up 10,000 compared to last month.

The numbers are actually somewhat better than they look. Last month, apprehensions came in 15% above our forecast; this month, apprehensions were materially at forecast as apprehensions rise seasonally as the weather warms. Thus, relative performance appears to be approving. Rather than being above forecast, the current month is now at forecast.

Having said that, we are still on track for 2.1 million apprehensions at the border, which would represent both a fiscal year and calendar year record. Things are better, but they are not good by any stretch. If the Biden administration can push apprehensions down as we head into the spring, some measure of public support may still be salvaged in November. We will see.

To add to the cheeriness my readers must now be feeling when they turn on the news, I would note that falling border apprehensions are often a leading indicator for recessions.

Let's hold that thought for now and let DHS and CBP bank a small win. We need more of this.