I argue that Putin is essentially taking advantage of the Biden Doctrine, which the President laid down at Arlington Cemetery last April. In effect, Biden declared his intent to elevate the prevention of military deaths in the field over national interest or honor. This essentially laid open Ukraine as a target for invasion by Putin's Russia. Former President Trump was spot on in his analysis, saying "This is genius. Putin declares a big portion of Ukraine ... as independent. How smart is that! And he's going to go in and be a peacekeeper. That's pretty savvy. And you know what the response was from Biden? There was no response."

Trump holds that the invasion of Ukraine would never have happened on his watch, and I think the evidence suggests this to be true. First, although Trump talked a lot about pulling out of Afghanistan, in four years, he never actually did it. Biden did withdraw, and the method chosen demonstrated that the Biden administration had no stomach to hold its ground. Moreover, Trump would never have given the Arlington speech. Further, Trump showed a willingness to put it to the enemy with the assassination of Iranian General Soleimani. But most importantly, Trump shares a common characteristic with Putin and Xi: an absolute fear of being seen as a loser. Trump could not sit by and do nothing, and Putin knows that. He knows Trump would have called Putin's bluff.

What's more, the American public agrees with this view. According to a Harvard-Harris poll released Friday, 62 percent of those responding believed Putin would not be moving against Ukraine if Trump had been president. That is a huge problem for President Biden and the Democrats. If Ukraine falls, those two of every three voters will blame the Biden administration, and that blame will manifest itself come the November elections. I had earlier stated the Democrats should put themselves on suicide watch over the Open Borders policy. If Ukraine falls, forget suicide watch. The Democrats should bite their cyanide capsules and say goodbye, because the party will be pegged as unfit to protect America. Voters can forgive much, but not national humiliation at the hands of America's chief rival, and a two-bit one at that.

So what can Democrats do? I am no military expert, but what I can find on the internet (here and here and here, for example) suggests that the US could beat the Russians with comparative ease:

The Russians cannot fight a modern war and their bullying capability is limited and would be ineffective against NATO's air power alone[.] ... A US-Russian war would look like Iraq '91, both by overwhelming asymmetry and by multilateral coalition backing.

If Biden wants to save the Democratic Party, he has virtually no choice but to let US air power off the leash. Based on the 9/11 precedent, if Biden succeeds, it is worth +35% net approval points:

Interestingly, the Republican Party, currently wavering over the position it should take, would also benefit from a hard line against Putin. If Republicans call for military intervention and Biden fails to act, then the right can say that Biden betrayed both Ukraine and the US. That would be the expected case outcome. If Biden fights and the US wins, then at least the Republicans will have limited the damage to their own party by being on the bandwagon. (There is nothing worse for a conservative than being pegged as a coward.) Finally, if the US fights and Ukraine falls anyway, Republicans can blame Biden for having chosen the wrong method. The Republicans would seem to benefit from taking a hard line in most outcomes.

My personal view: Let US air power into the game. We have paid a boatload (more like an aircraft carrier load) of money to Boeing, Northrop Grumman and other vendors for state of the art air power. Let's call Putin's bluff and see what our equipment can do.