Customs and Border Protection has reported 146,942 apprehensions at the US southwest border for the month of January. This represents a decline of 23,600 compared to December. At the same time, border apprehensions were the second highest for the month on record, bested only by the 186,000 apprehensions in January 2000 during the Clinton administration.

Notwithstanding the decline in absolute numbers, January apprehensions were still running well ahead of our forecast, in fact 18,000 (+14%) above our forecast of 129,000. Illegal immigration shows a distinct seasonality, with January historically the softest month. Therefore, although apprehensions declined in absolute terms, they came in quite hot compared to expectations. We should not read too much into January numbers, but there is no reason to believe that border control has fundamentally improved this past month.

Our forecasts of a record 2.1 million apprehensions for fiscal and calendar year 2022 remain unchanged. Barring a material change in border policy, the fiscal year record will be formally determined around October 21st, the date CBP is likely to publish the September apprehensions numbers. The midterm elections are on November 8th. As I have written before, Democrats should put themselves on suicide watch, and indeed, they are, with the number of House Democrats not seeking reelection this year at a 30-year high, per The Hill. Even more will announce retirements as events in Ukraine prove to be a turbo-charged version of the debacle in Afghanistan, with the likes of CNN contrasting the images of dead Ukrainian children with members of the 82nd Airborne playing video games in Poland. Record apprehensions will not be the Biden administration's only problem come November.