Customs and Border Protection reported 206,239 apprehensions at the US southwest border for the month of November. It was, as every month it seems, yet another record. Apprehensions were up nearly 40,000 on November 2021, which was a record for the month at a time. Indeed, the greatest number of apprehensions outside the Biden administration was 76,200 in November 1999, during that fateful year of the Clinton administration.
Apprehensions averaged 35,500 for the months of November during the Obama and Trump administrations. Thus, as we have noted before, apprehensions are running at nearly six times 'normal' levels.
On the plus side (if we can put it that way), our forecast for fiscal and calendar year 2023 remains unchanged at 2.6 million, up 300,000 from 2022's record.
Inadmissibles, those presenting themselves at official crossing points without appropriate documentation, continues to run hot. Calendar year inadmissibles are likely to come in at 240,000, which is an astounding number. Inadmissibles used to be a small fraction of border encounters. In 2022, the number of inadmissibles will be almost as large as apprehensions in a normal year. Again, the simple interpretation is that Customs and Border Protection has been instructed to simply wave people through, hence the rising trend in inadmissibles.
The "Feeble Joe" narrative is beginning to re-emerge. The Oil Price Cap -- a terrible idea to begin with -- is threatening to self-destruct as oil prices rise due to collapsing Russian crude exports. US military support for Ukraine is again being framed as excessively timid. Ben Hodges, who served as commanding general of United States Army Europe, recently stated that "what would help Ukraine win would be for the White House to say we want Ukraine to win. Here we are ten months into it, and they still can't get over that last little hurdle about saying we want Ukraine to win." The perception of feebleness which characterized the Biden administration prior to February 24th is resurfacing, with border chaos a primary cause.
Let's hope the administration can steel itself, for the border is in utter chaos and emblematic of an administration spinning out of control.