Customs and Border Protection reported 204,273 apprehensions at the US southwest border for the month of October. This is comfortably the highest on record for the month, besting last year's record by 28%. To put it in context, October's apprehensions were more than double the third highest October, set in 1999 under the Clinton administration.
Apprehensions in October also continue to run ahead of our forecast, 31,000 above expectations. As I have noted for the last several months, conditions at the border appear to be deteriorating even compared to the outlandish levels seen to date under the Biden administration. Thus, our 2022 calendar year forecast is raised to 2.3 million, up from 2.1 million expected as of this past January.
We also make our first forecast for southwest border apprehensions for calendar and fiscal year 2023, both coming in at 2.6 million, that is, 300,000-500,000 higher than in 2022. I personally hoped that the 2022 numbers were as bad as it gets, but clearly, the mayhem at the border has upside potential. Of course, it is early days to make a hard call for 2023. Nevertheless, based on the last two months, 2023 should set yet another record for illegal border crossing -- and by a substantial margin over 2022. This coming March, April and May in particular could post some spectacularly ugly numbers.
Inadmissibles, those presenting themselves at official crossing points without appropriate documentation, continues to run hot. CBP reports 26,405 inadmissibles for October, the second highest month for any month in the past ten years. The record, 32,281, was set by the Biden administration this past April. The numbers once again suggest permissive conditions at official entry points at the southwest border.
I find it difficult not to feel a certain chagrin with the Trumpians in this past election. In the House, the Democrats over-performed by 30 seats. That is, a statistical regression would have predicted a loss of 39 seats in the House given President Biden's approval rating at the time. As of writing, the Democrats will have lost only 9, ceding a narrow majority to the Republicans.
Part of the Democrats' relative success may be attributed to the Ukraine war. A first-term president last saw a gain in the House in 2002, when President George W. Bush enjoyed an outpouring of support following the 9/11 attacks on the US. Wars tend to support incumbents electorally -- at least in the early stages of the conflict. The Russo-Ukrainian war probably helped the Democrats at the midterms.
Nevertheless, the problems run deeper for the Republican Party. Trump-endorsed candidates largely alienated centrist independents. As Karl Rove writes in the Wall Street Journal:
The election results do reflect a problem of substance, specifically the damage Republicans did with candidates who went full-on Trumpy. If they echoed the former president’s issues, tone and stolen-election claims, they often lost and in almost every case ran behind the rest of the Republican ticket.
The principal reason Republicans came up short was that just when Americans were ready to vote for them to check Democratic excesses, the GOP nominated too many radicals and weirdos.
This is now the third time President Trump has cost the Republicans control of the House or Senate. What is the takeaway for the Biden administration? Is tightening up the border a political necessity? Or will 2.6 million apprehensions at the border in 2023 become just another business-as-usual statistic, another benchmark for acceptable border anarchy?
Until the Trump Republicans nominate candidates acceptable to the median voter -- in the US, a suburban, two-car-garage independent -- Democrats will set the political agenda, and the border is likely to remain wide open.