On this fine summer Friday afternoon at 2:30 pm EDT, Customs and Border Protection finally deigned to share June apprehensions data for the US southwest border. This showed June apprehensions of 178,416. This was 6,400 higher than the previous month and 63,300 above the next highest June in the last twenty-one years, specifically, 115,100 for June 2020. For the record, the third highest for the month of June in the last two decades was 2005, at 95,000.
Putting a charitable interpretation on these numbers is well nigh impossible, for several reasons. First, the last four months' apprehensions are ghoulishly high, a stark aberration in the historical record. Southwest border apprehensions under Obama, in pink, and Trump, in blue, can be seen on the graph below. To suggest that somehow the Biden administration lacks the tools of Obama or Trump is risible. The only way to achieve such stratospheric numbers is by a deliberate policy of holding the border open.
The seasonal pattern also shows a premeditated policy. In all but two of the last twenty-one years, June apprehensions were below May apprehensions. The case is just the opposite this year, suggesting that extraordinary factors -- like an open border -- are stimulating continued and counter-seasonal flows of illegal immigration.
Further, the historical comparison with 2000 also suggests the administration is holding the border wide open. While the year 2000 started hot, the Clinton administration was working to suppress border traffic, and indeed, the results can clearly be seen in the 2000 monthly data on the graph below. Apprehensions decreased essentially throughout the year.
In the current case, apprehensions have risen from the January base and stayed high, indeed, increased a bit in June. This tells us that the Biden administration is not taking the steps the Clinton administration did, again suggesting a deliberate policy of keeping the border wide open.
Our forecast for the balance of CY 2021 assumes a decrease in apprehensions following the precedent of 2000. In such an event, apprehensions at the US southwest border would total 1,581,000 for FY 2021 and 1,690,000 for calendar year 2021. The fiscal year figure would be the third worst in the historical record, and for the calendar year, the absolute worst in the historical record by nearly 100,000.
I would note that this implies apprehensions taper off in the balance of the year in a manner similar to 2000. They are showing no signs of doing so at the moment. Therefore, if apprehensions remain elevated near recent levels, both fiscal and calendar year 2021 will enter the history books as records for illegal immigration. By any reasonable measure, only a deliberate policy of holding the border open could achieve such an outcome.
A similar pattern, albeit from a much lower base, can be seen with inadmissibles, those showing up at official crossing points without proper documentation. Inadmissibles are again soaring, more than twice April's level, suggesting that migrants are finding some success on that side as well.
In any country, a leader has two fundamental responsibilities to the public. The first is the protection of the country from invasion from or conquest by external forces. The second is protecting the public from disruptive internal forces, like crime and terrorism. That the Biden administration would deliberately leave the border open constitutes a fundamental dereliction of duty and is shocking, appalling and an affront to the public.
I have no idea what the administration has in mind, but clearly they have decided to play all-or-nothing. Win or lose, it is not a fitting posture for a US president.