US Customs and Border Protection today reported southwest border apprehensions for the month of May.

In May, apprehensions at the southwest border declined by 1,675 to 172,011. This was the highest for the month since 2000, as far back as our monthly data goes.

Interestingly, inadmissibles -- those showing up at official crossing points without necessary documentation -- surged in May. These rose by 55% compared to the previous month and are now above normal, with normal defined as the 2012-2015 average.

Three explanations come to mind. First, the organic apprehensions rate may be declining and inadmissibles are returning to normal with the end of the pandemic. That is certainly possible.

Alternatively, some apprehensions may be being reclassified as inadmissibles to make the former look more favorable. That is, with higher inadmissibles, the apprehension rate appears to be declining, if only modestly.

Finally, some of those who would have tried to enter illegally between official entry points may now be finding it productive to try their hand at official entry points. That is, some migrants are finding that they are gaining entry without papers even at official border crossing stations. The rapid rise in inadmissibles suggests that this may be the case.

For the calendar year as a whole, we are projecting 1.2 million southwest border apprehensions, much as we have for the last two months. This would make calendar year 2021 among the ten worst years for illegal immigration in US history and place us squarely back into Clinton era numbers.

I would note that any number of immigration analysts claimed that the illegal immigration surge of the 1980-2005 period was over and would never happen again. By contrast, we argued that relative wages, the number of US job openings, and the intensity of border enforcement would determine migrant flows. If the jobs were on offer, the migrants would come. And they are.