Preliminary Border Patrol data indicates 163,000 migrants were apprehended at the US southwest border in October. This represents a decline of more than 22,000, or more than 12%, from September. Ordinarily, October apprehensions are just slightly below that of September; as a result, October's numbers constitute a relative improvement in border control by the Biden administration. On the other hand, this past month was still 78% higher than the next closest October, that of October 1999, when 91,410 persons were apprehended at the southwest border. For purposes of comparison, October apprehensions averaged 45,000 under President Trump and 33,000 under President Obama. Thus, October apprehensions were better than expected, but still four or five times the average for the month during the Trump or Obama administrations.

With the apprehensions decline in October, our calendar year forecast is adjusted down to the 1.85 - 1.88 million range, which would again be a record by a comfortable margin. Indeed, apprehensions have already set an all-time record for the calendar year -- with two months left to go!

Overall, the Biden administration is seeing a marginal improvement at the border, but apprehensions remain far above normal levels.

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