The prospect of a Biden administration has begun to lubricate the policy wheels at the various think tanks. This past week, David Bier of the CATO Institute laid out 52 reforms for the US immigration system. David is possibly the most sensible analyst in the immigration sphere and his proposed policies establish the benchmark by which other alternatives may be judged. Most of CATO's views are long-held, but they are worth reviewing for those readers not familiar with them.
I have been personally surprised by the strength of the right in the recent election. Moreover, I think Republicans have solid prospects to hold the two Senate seats in Georgia and therefore a majority in the Senate. By implication, CIS and FAIR -- not CATO -- look to be the winners of this election. CATO will need a tailwind if it hopes to see a meaningful share of its program implemented.
Demographics might provide the needed push.
The US Census Bureau updated its US population estimates this past week; econ blog Calculated Risk provides an analysis of the numbers well worth reading. In essence, in 2017 the Census Bureau over-estimated the 2019 US population by over 2 million; by over 3 million in 2020 if Calculated Risks' estimates prove correct. A miss of 2-3 million people over a three year stretch is huge.
An extrapolation of these trends shows the challenges ahead. A 'naive' regression analysis suggests that the US will face the now well-known European and Japanese problems of depopulation by the end of the decade. From 2030, the entirety of US net population growth will depend on immigration if family policy does not change otherwise.
This will put both CATO and CIS on the horns of a dilemma. If individuals are choosing not to have children and that leads to depopulation, well, that's ok from the libertarian perspective. If depopulation is acceptable, however, then the patently visible, emerging case for higher immigration is potentially weaker.
By contrast, CIS and FAIR were founded upon the premise that over-population is a problem. Nevertheless, the data says that in the US, as in other advanced countries, the problem -- at least from the conservative perspective -- will soon be depopulation. And as ever in these matters, Hungary's Prime Minister Victor Orban foreshadows the associated politics with his 'procreation, not immigration' policy. This may be on the agenda in the US as soon as 2024, and probably not later that 2028. Where will CIS and FAIR stand then?
Last week's election demonstrated that nearly half of US voters are prepared to challenge traditional assumptions about left and right and beliefs about the legitimacy of democratic traditions and institutions. Demographic trends suggest that accepted notions of left and right will continue to be churned. In all this, paradoxically, social conservatives promise to be the radical force, even as fiscal conservatives and progressives fight to preserve the status quo.