The covid pandemic has changed much in our societies. Illegal immigration has largely been put on ice since March, both by myself and many other commentators. Nevertheless, the world of illegal immigration has not stood still over the last six months, and it's time to start catching up.
Consider border apprehensions: With the outbreak of the pandemic, southwest border apprehensions collapsed to only 16,000 in April, which would have been a four decade low but for April 2017, when the then new president, Donald Trump, intimidated Central Americans into postponing their journeys north. However, then as now, April would mark the low point of the cycle and numbers would rise thereafter, this year, in linear fashion to last month.
September apprehensions were surprisingly high, 54,771, the highest for the month since 2006, during the Bush administration. This is attributed variously to 1) continued pandemic-related lockdowns in Central America, forcing migrants north looking for work; 2) a greater propensity for catch-and-release by Border Patrol, encouraging more tries by migrants; and 3) attempts by migrants to seek medical treatment in the US.
Be that as it may, apprehensions continue to march up, much like 2018. The Great Migrant Surge of 2019 (GMS) began in July 2018 and accelerated into mid-2019. Last month's apprehensions were well above the 2018 levels which would prove the harbinger of a subsequent explosion in illegal immigration. One has to wonder whether we could see a repeat here. Should President Trump lose the election, as many now believe, he will have little incentive to fix the border in the balance of his administration. An incoming Joe Biden will be swamped with action items, not least a stimulus bill, should that fail to pass in the next two weeks. As a result, the incoming administration may not be in a position to deal with illegal immigration until the spring. In the interim, the border could devolve into yet another free-for-all. For now, this is speculation, but anyone with a ruler can project a surge during the winter months.
One should note that the demographics of illegal immigration have returned to their traditional form. Historically, the majority of border jumpers were single adults, mostly men. During the GMS, families displaced individuals, as both court rulings and the Omnibus Bill of 2019 provided preferential treatment for adults traveling with children. With the pandemic, however, families and unaccompanied minors have all but disappeared from the rolls of apprehended.
The opportunity today is for those willing to risk illness and apprehension, and try over and over if detained by Border Patrol. Once again, adult men traveling alone have an advantage. And they are coming in record numbers. Expect the trend to continue.
In contrast to apprehensions, inadmissibles -- those seeking to enter the US at official crossing points but lack proper documentation -- have fallen sharply, down two-thirds. Traveling to the US during the covid pandemic is risky, and of course, the US-Mexico border remains closed to non-essential travel.
Thus, illegal immigration today is largely limited to adults traveling alone, willing to risk not only apprehension but covid infection to reach the US.