For the month of August, Customs and Border Protection reported 50,693 apprehensions at the US southwest border. This was a reduction of 21,289 (-30%) compared to the prior month, and 87% below the May high of approximately 133,000. This decline continues to be attributed to a crackdown by Mexican authorities at the behest of President Trump.

Notwithstanding, August apprehensions remain up 35% on last year and are the highest for the month since 2007.

We forecast the pace of apprehensions to continue to decline, returning to recent averages for the balance of the year.

A portion of the illegal traffic has been visibly diverted into inadmissibles, with migrants trying alternative means to enter the US. At 13,300, inadmissibles for August are 40% above our forecast made early this year, but are still relatively small in absolute terms.

Again, the Trump administration deserves credit for the reduction in the pace of apprehensions at the southwest border.