Customs and Border Patrol has issued stunning January numbers for the US southwest border. CBP reported 47,893 apprehensions, an increase of nearly 22,000 (+84%) over last year (which was not depressed by Trump effect which prevailed in 2017). More impressively, January apprehensions were up 12,000 (+33%) on our November forecast. As the graph below shows, there is nothing modest about our forecast, which called for a 31% increase in apprehensions in 2019 over 2018. And the January actuals were 33% above that!

Nor were inadmissibles spared. January inadmissibles came in at 10,314, 4% over last year's high base, and 3,135 (+44%) above our November forecast for the month.

The January numbers do not yet warrant an upward revision in our forecast of 606,000 apprehensions in 2019. But we are on notice. Buckle your seat belts: 2019 could be a wild ride at the southwest border.