Customs and Border Protection reported 33,510 apprehensions at the southwest US border for the month of November. This is about 2,000 below the prior month and 500 below our forecast, that is, actuals are essentially at forecast levels. The rate of apprehensions for November was average for the past decade.

The rate of improvement in apprehensions has been decelerating. Families have been largely discouraged, and the remaining traffic is primarily single men traveling alone to avoid detection. This traditional traffic is not much changed over several years, and if the Trump administration wants to claim improved border security over the Obama administration, then that result really has to be demonstrated in the single adult, traveling alone category. We would guess that this will be hard to do. Families are, as a practical matter, amateurs. Men traveling alone count as professionals.

Our model (60% apprehension rate, three tries) suggests that 200,000 migrants make it across the border undetected every year. The US government could achieve the same outcome by setting up a toll booth and allowing in 200,000 migrants. This would represent $1.4 bn in incremental revenue per year in an MBV program, as well as allowing a reduction in enforcement costs in the billion dollar range, all in representing a capitalized value around $15 bn. And the exact same number of migrants would be in the US in either case. We can enforce the border the hard way, or the easy way. The easy way is more fun. We might try it sometime.

Turning to inadmissibles, these are coming in again right on our forecast made in January of this year. In other words, the level of inadmissibles is also largely normal.