As forecast, Border Patrol apprehensions and inadmissibles were up sharply for April year on year. On the other hand, we forecast about 15% higher crossings, given the strength of the US economy. The lower observed number suggests that increased efforts at the border and vigorous ICE enforcement activities in the US interior are having a modest deterrent effect.

April is likely to mark the worst relative performance year on year, as the month was the absolute low point for crossings last year and therefore established a low base for comparison.

May should see the highest number of crossings for the year in absolute terms, coming in around 58,000 based on recent trends. The year on year increase in May is likely to come in a bit less than 200%.