US southwest border apprehensions came in at 41,486 for the month of September, nearly 4,000 above the previous month and a whopping 12,750 (31%) above our forecast of just three months ago. This was the highest September count in a decade.

The only comparable year in recent times was 2016, and numbers were elevated then due to an acceleration of migrants crossing in anticipation of President Trump winning the election and clamping down on migrants as he took office in early 2017. The surge we are seeing now is pure economic strength, presaged by rapidly rising remittances to Mexico reported for July and August.

Assuming the global economy holds together, we should anticipate that apprehensions will recover to the 45,000 - 65,000 / month level which prevailed prior to the Great Recession. From the migrant perspective, the good times are back.

Inadmissibles, those who try to cross at official entry points without proper documentation, remained range-bound in September.